Prefer an ad-free experience? Get PolitPro+ now.

Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Saxony-Anhalt (Infratest dimap, April 21, 2021)

April 16, 2021 - April 21, 2021

1202 respondents

Next Saxony-Anhalt Landtag Election: September 6, 2026

The next Saxony-Anhalt Landtag Election takes place in 55 days.

Government Majority in Saxony-Anhalt Currently Uncertain

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 51.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

According to the latest national poll in Saxony-Anhalt by Infratest dimap, CDU leads with 27%. They are followed by AfD: 20%, Die Linke: 12%, SPD: 12%, Grüne: 11% and FDP: 8%. Other parties secure 10% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Saxony-Anhalt
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Saxony-Anhalt
Prefer an ad-free experience? Get PolitPro+ now.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Landtag election in Saxony-Anhalt is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • CDU
    ??%
  • AfD
    ??%
  • Linke
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • CDU
    ??%
  • AfD
    ??%
  • Linke
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SPD
    ??%
  • Grüne
    ??%
  • FDP
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to data from Infratest dimap, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Saxony-Anhalt parliament: CDU with 25 representatives, AfD with 19 representatives, Die Linke with 11 representatives, SPD with 11 representatives, Grüne with 10 representatives and FDP with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Saxony-Anhalt

In Saxony-Anhalt, voters cast two ballots to determine at least 87 seats in the Landtag. The system employs classic personalized proportional representation, designed to foster a stable parliamentary majority while ensuring strong regional ties through 41 directly elected constituency representatives.

Electoral Thresholds

Saxony-Anhalt rigorously enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, shaping a distinct party landscape in Magdeburg. This hurdle significantly challenges smaller parties, as the state lacks a basic mandate clause that could translate local victories into Landtag seats.

Government Formation and Traditions

Saxony-Anhalt gained national attention for pioneering Germany's first 'Kenya Coalition' (CDU, SPD, Greens), later followed by a 'Germany Coalition' (CDU, SPD, FDP). Government formation often proves a laborious process for centrist parties, aiming to forge a stable front against the formidable AfD opposition.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

Help Us Stay Independent

Your support helps shield PolitPro from the influence of lobbyists and political parties.

Give Feedback

Tell us how we can make PolitPro even better for you!

Found a Mistake?

Political data is constantly evolving. If you spot an error, please let us know. A brief reference to your source will help us verify and update the information.