Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Saxony-Anhalt (INSA, March 16, 2020)

March 2, 2020 - March 16, 2020

1005 respondents

Next General election in Saxony-Anhalt: September 6, 2026

The next General election in Saxony-Anhalt takes place in 198 days.

Incumbent Government in Saxony-Anhalt Without a Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 39.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

A recent opinion poll for the Saxe-Anhalt election, released by INSA on March 16, 2020, places AfD in the lead with 25%. Following closely are CDU: 25%, Die Linke: 18%, Grüne: 11%, SPD: 11% and FDP: 4%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Saxony-Anhalt
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What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Saxony-Anhalt

Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

83
Majority requires 42 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Landtag election in Saxony-Anhalt is 5%.

CDU + AfD
Right
59.0%
CDU + Grüne + SPD
Centre
54.2%
CDU + Die Linke
Centre
51.8%
AfD + Die Linke
Centre-Right
45.8%
CDU + Grüne
Centre
43.4%
CDU + SPD
Centre-Right
43.4%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to data from INSA, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Saxony-Anhalt parliament: CDU with 27 representatives, AfD with 22 representatives, Die Linke with 16 representatives, Grüne with 9 representatives and SPD with 9 representatives.

The Electoral System in Saxony-Anhalt

In Saxony-Anhalt, voters cast two ballots to determine at least 87 seats in the Landtag. The system employs classic personalized proportional representation, designed to foster a stable parliamentary majority while ensuring strong regional ties through 41 directly elected constituency representatives.

Electoral Thresholds

Saxony-Anhalt rigorously enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, shaping a distinct party landscape in Magdeburg. This hurdle significantly challenges smaller parties, as the state lacks a basic mandate clause that could translate local victories into Landtag seats.

Government Formation and Traditions

Saxony-Anhalt gained national attention for pioneering Germany's first 'Kenya Coalition' (CDU, SPD, Greens), later followed by a 'Germany Coalition' (CDU, SPD, FDP). Government formation often proves a laborious process for centrist parties, aiming to forge a stable front against the formidable AfD opposition.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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