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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Saxony-Anhalt (Institut Wahlkreisprognose, May 28, 2023)

May 16, 2023 - May 28, 2023

732 respondents

Next Saxony-Anhalt Landtag Election: September 6, 2026

The next Saxony-Anhalt Landtag Election takes place in 25 days.

Governing Coalition in Saxony-Anhalt Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Institut Wahlkreisprognose projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 60.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut Wahlkreisprognose?

According to the latest national poll in Saxony-Anhalt by Institut Wahlkreisprognose, CDU leads with 37%. They are followed by AfD: 26%, SPD: 12%, Die Linke: 10%, FDP: 6% and Grüne: 4%. Other parties secure 5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Saxony-Anhalt
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Saxony-Anhalt
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut Wahlkreisprognose Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Institut Wahlkreisprognose at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Landtag election in Saxony-Anhalt is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Institut Wahlkreisprognose)

According to data from Institut Wahlkreisprognose, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Saxony-Anhalt parliament: CDU with 34 representatives, AfD with 24 representatives, SPD with 11 representatives, Die Linke with 9 representatives and FDP with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Saxony-Anhalt

In Saxony-Anhalt, voters cast two ballots to determine at least 87 seats in the Landtag. The system employs classic personalized proportional representation, designed to foster a stable parliamentary majority while ensuring strong regional ties through 41 directly elected constituency representatives.

Electoral Thresholds

Saxony-Anhalt rigorously enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, shaping a distinct party landscape in Magdeburg. This hurdle significantly challenges smaller parties, as the state lacks a basic mandate clause that could translate local victories into Landtag seats.

Government Formation and Traditions

Saxony-Anhalt gained national attention for pioneering Germany's first 'Kenya Coalition' (CDU, SPD, Greens), later followed by a 'Germany Coalition' (CDU, SPD, FDP). Government formation often proves a laborious process for centrist parties, aiming to forge a stable front against the formidable AfD opposition.

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Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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