Latest Opinion Poll for the Saxony Election (INSA, July 2, 2020)

June 29, 2020 - July 2, 2020

1020 respondents

Next General election in Saxony: 2029

The next General election in Saxony is expected in 2029.

Saxony's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 47.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

In the latest opinion poll for the Saxe election, conducted by INSA on July 2, 2020, CDU leads with 36%. Trailing are AfD: 26%, Die Linke: 11%, Grüne: 10%, SPD: 7% and FDP: 4%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.

Current Election Trend in Saxony
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Saxony

Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

120
Majority requires 61 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Saxony state election is 5%.

CDU + AfD
Right
69.2%
CDU + Die Linke
Centre-Right
52.5%
CDU + Grüne
Centre-Right
50.8%
CDU + SPD
Centre-Right
47.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA's data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Saxony parliament: CDU with 48 representatives, AfD with 35 representatives, Die Linke with 15 representatives, Grüne with 13 representatives and SPD with 9 representatives.

The Electoral System in Saxony

The Free State of Saxony utilizes a personalized proportional representation system, featuring both first and second votes. With 60 constituencies and a minimum of 120 seats, the system is designed to bring regional personalities directly into the Landtag. The second vote then adjusts the overall result to ensure proportional representation.

Electoral Thresholds

Saxony enforces a five percent threshold, but with an 'alternative clause': parties winning two direct mandates secure seats in the Landtag even if they fall below 5%. This provision preserved political diversity in the Landtag in 2024 and stands as a crucial feature of Saxon minority protection.

Government Formation and Traditions

Forming a government in Saxony is exceptionally complex due to the strong political fringes. Coalitions like the 'Kenya Coalition' or new formations involving the BSW are essential to establish a stable government against the AfD. This demands maximum willingness to compromise within the Dresden Landtag.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

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