Saxony: Poll by Institut Wahlkreisprognose from 09.01.2024

Polling data

CDU
30.5
+2.0
AfD
28.5
-4.0
BSW
15.5
+15.5
Linke
6.0
-1.5
Grüne
5.5
±0.0
SPD
5.5
-3.0
FDP
2.0
-2.0
Others
6.5
-7.0
Development since the last election on 01.09.2024
CDU
-1.4
AfD
-2.1
BSW
+3.7
Linke
+1.5
Grüne
+0.4
SPD
-1.8
FDP
+1.1
Institut Wahlkreisprognose – 970 respondents – 02.01.2024-09.01.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Saxony is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates BSW higher

In 33% of election polls, Institut Wahlkreisprognose rates BSW higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Saxony - The latest poll for the State election in Saxony from Institut Wahlkreisprognose shows the following results: CDU 30.5%, AfD 28.5%, BSW 15.5%, Die Linke 6%, Grüne 5.5%, SPD 5.5% and FDP 2%. If an election were held in Saxony this Sunday, BSW might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.7 growth since the last election. AfD, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Michael Kretschmer is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Grüne, CDU and SPD. With 45.3% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. For this purpose, 970 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (02.01.2024 - 09.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

120
Majority requires 61 seats
Linke
8
6.6%
SPD
7
6%
Grüne
7
6%
BSW
20
16.9%
CDU
40
33.3%
AfD
38
31.1%
CDU + AfD
65.0%
CDU + BSW + Die Linke
56.7%
CDU + BSW + SPD
55.8%
CDU + BSW + Grüne
55.8%
AfD + BSW + Die Linke
55.0%
CDU + Die Linke + Grüne + SPD
51.7%
CDU + BSW
50.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Saxony was conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose. The survey took place between 02.01.2024 and 09.01.2024 among 970 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CDU 30.5%, AfD 28.5%, BSW 15.5%, Die Linke 6%, Grüne 5.5%, SPD 5.5% and FDP 2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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