Current election polls and polling data from AKO

Latest voting intention survey by AKO for Slovakia

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Slovakia conducted by AKO, the parties received the following results: PS 21.2%, SMER 20.7%, HLAS 14.7%, SaS 6.9%, KDH 6.7%, S 6.6%, Republika 5.9%, SNS 4.7%, Demokrati 4.1%, MA 3.7%, Sme Rodina 3.6% and ĽSNS 0.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 20.11.2024 - 20.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by TV JOJ.
1000 participants
20.11.2024 - 20.11.2024
AKO
TV JOJ
PS
21.2
-0.1
SMER
20.7
-0.6
HLAS
14.7
-0.3
SaS
6.9
+0.4
KDH
6.7
+0.5
S
6.6
+6.6
REP
5.9
-0.9
SNS
4.7
-0.1
D
4.1
-0.6
MA
3.7
+0.3
SR
3.6
+1.0
ĽSNS
0.4
-0.2
Others
0.8
-6.0

Seats in parliament

150
Majority requires 76 seats
SMER
38
25%
HLAS
27
17.8%
PS
39
25.6%
SaS
12
8.3%
KDH
12
8.1%
S
12
8%
REP
10
7.1%
PS + HLAS + SaS
52.0%
PS + HLAS + KDH
52.0%
PS + HLAS + S
52.0%
PS + SMER
51.3%
SMER + HLAS + SaS
51.3%
SMER + HLAS + KDH
51.3%
SMER + HLAS + S
51.3%
PS + SaS + KDH + S
50.0%
SMER + SaS + KDH + S
49.3%

Rating of parties

Institute often rates SaS higher

In 36% of election polls, AKO rates SaS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower than before
Unchanged
Higher than before
D
11
84
5
HLAS
2
71
27
KDH
Not enough data available
MA
Not enough data available
PS
7
87
7
REP
23
77
0
S
Not enough data available
SMER
16
81
3
SNS
Not enough data available
SR
3
91
7
SaS
Not enough data available
ĽSNS
10
88
2

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in AKO pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.8 percentage points.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.