Latest polls from Median
19.8
19.3
11.9
8
7.7
7.4
6.2
4.8
4.1
3.8
2.5
1.7
2.8
17.8
17.8
10.2
9.4
8.2
7.3
7.1
6.7
5.5
3.6
2.3
4.1
21.5
17.1
12.1
9.7
7.4
6.5
6.2
5.3
4.2
3.4
2.4
4.2
Rating of parties
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Median pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.0 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, Median's average ranking is 3.0.
0x the most accurate prediction
2
1x the second best prediction
3
0x the third best prediction
4
1x on rank 4