Latest voting intention survey by NMS for Slovakia
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Slovakia conducted by NMS, the parties received the following results: PS 23.9%, SMER 18.4%, HLAS 11.5%, Republika 8.9%, SaS 6.7%, S 6.3%, KDH 5.9%, Demokrati 4%, Sme Rodina 3.6%, MA 3.4%, ZĽ 2.3%, SNS 2.1%, ĽSNS 1.4% and Kresťanská únia 0.8%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1001 people during the period 13.01.2025 - 13.01.2025.
1001 participants
09.01.2025 - 13.01.2025
NMS
Seats in parliament
150
Majority requires 76 seats
SMER
34
22.7%
HLAS
21
14%
PS
45
30%
SaS
12
8%
S
11
7.3%
KDH
11
7.3%
REP
16
10.7%
PS + SMER
PS + SaS + KDH + S
PS + HLAS + SaS
SMER + HLAS + SaS + KDH
SMER + HLAS + SaS + S
PS + HLAS + KDH
PS + HLAS + S
SMER + HLAS + KDH + S
Rating of parties
Institute often rates HLAS lower
In 56% of election polls NMS rates HLAS lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PS higher
In 31% of election polls, NMS rates PS higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Republika higher
In 31% of election polls, NMS rates Republika higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SMER lower
In 31% of election polls NMS rates SMER lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in NMS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.02
|
Parliamentary Election in Slowakei 2023 | 5/5 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.