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Latest Opinion Poll for Slovakia (AKO, February 12, 2019)

February 8, 2019 - February 12, 2019

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Slovakia: 2027

The next General Election in Slovakia is expected in 2027.

Incumbent Government in Slovakia Without a Majority

Based on the AKO projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 32.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from AKO?
According to the latest national poll in Slovakia by AKO, SMER leads with 22.4%. They are followed by SaS: 14.8%, Sme Rodina: 10.9%, OĽaNO: 10.1%, ĽSNS: 9.5%, SNS: 8%, PS–SPOLU: 7.5%, Modrí, Most–Híd: 6.3%, KDH: 6.1% and SMK–MKP: 3.3%. Other parties secure 1.1% of the votes.
Current Election Trend: Slovakia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Slovakia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the AKO Projection?

77

PolitPro Score

AKO achieved a PolitPro Score of 77 out of 100.

1.7

Election Accuracy

On average, AKO's figures deviate by 1.7 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

AKO at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Slovakia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • SMER
    ??%
  • SaS
    ??%
  • SR
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • SMER
    ??%
  • SaS
    ??%
  • SR
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SaS
    ??%
  • SR
    ??%
  • SNS
    ??%
  • KDH
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
Unlock Analysis
SaS + Sme Rodina + OĽaNO + SNS + Modrí, Most–Híd
Centre-Right
52.0%
SaS + Sme Rodina + OĽaNO + SNS + KDH
Centre-Right
51.3%
SMER + SaS + OĽaNO
Centre-Right
50.0%
SMER + SaS + Modrí, Most–Híd
Centre-Right
46.0%
SaS + Sme Rodina + OĽaNO + SNS
Centre-Right
45.3%
SMER + SaS + KDH
Centre-Right
45.3%
SaS + Sme Rodina + OĽaNO + Modrí, Most–Híd
Centre
44.0%
SaS + Sme Rodina + OĽaNO + KDH
Centre-Right
43.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: AKO)
According to AKO, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Slovakia's National Council: SMER with 36 representatives, SaS with 23 representatives, Sme Rodina with 17 representatives, OĽaNO with 16 representatives, ĽSNS with 15 representatives, SNS with 12 representatives, PS–SPOLU with 12 representatives, Modrí, Most–Híd with 10 representatives and KDH with 9 representatives.

The Electoral System in Slovakia
Slovakia's National Council (Národná rada) comprises 150 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation with open lists, where the entire country constitutes a single electoral district. Voters cast their ballot for a party list but can influence the order of candidates through up to four preferential votes. If a candidate secures a specific number of preferential votes, they move up the list, granting voters direct influence over candidate selection.

Electoral Thresholds
To enter the National Council, Slovakia applies varying electoral thresholds. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the national vote. For coalitions of two or three parties, the threshold stands at 7%, while alliances of four or more parties face a 10% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation by small, ad-hoc alliances. Votes cast for parties failing to clear these thresholds are forfeited in seat allocation, fostering the formation of stable parliamentary factions.

Government Formation and Traditions
As the electoral system rarely yields an absolute majority for any single party among the 150 seats, coalition governments are the norm in Slovakia. Following an election, the President typically tasks the leader of the strongest party with forming a government. Within 30 days of its appointment, the new government must present its program to the National Council and secure a vote of confidence. Slovakia's political landscape often features dynamic alliances, with negotiations frequently demanding intense compromises on economic and social policy.
Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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