PolitPro

Slovakia AKO: election poll for the Parliamentary election in Slovakia from 14 July 2026

Strongest Force
PS
3.5 points ahead of SMER
Government Majority
No Majority
45 of 150 seats in the Election Trend
Election year
2027
estimated

Voting intention poll for the Parliamentary election in Slovakia

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. AKO: single poll for the Parliamentary election in Slovakia, fieldwork ended 14 July 2026.

Changes since the last election on 30 September 2023

PS
20.8
+2.8
17.3
-5.6
REP
9.7
+4.9
SaS
8.8
+2.5
8.5
-6.2
S
8.0
+8.0
KDH
7.7
+0.9
D
5.8
+2.9
SNS
4.8
-0.8
MA
2.8
+2.8
2.8
+2.8
SR
2.2
±0.0
Other
0.8
Institute
AKO
Survey Period
08/07/2026 – 14/07/2026
Respondents
1,000
Current government in Slovakia falls short of a majority

Based on this poll, the parties currently in government would win 30.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading according to the poll by AKO?

A recent voting intention poll for Slovakia by AKO shows PS leading with 20.8%, followed by SMER with 17.3%, Republika with 9.7%, SaS with 8.8%, HLAS with 8.5%, S with 8%, KDH with 7.7%, Demokrati with 5.8%, SNS with 4.8%, Magyar Aliancia with 2.8%, Slovenská Pravda with 2.8% and Sme Rodina with 2.2%. Other parties achieve 0.8% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

Seat projection based on this poll

AKO: how reliable is the projection?

77 PolitPro Score Rank 2 of 5 in Slovakia
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 70.6
Avg. deviation in elections
1.7 pp

2 election comparisons

Recorded polls
74

Last on 21 September 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
76
0 150
Majority 76

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.

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PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. PS
    0%
  2. SMER
    0%
  3. REP
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. PS
    89%
  2. SMER
    11%
  3. REP
    <1%
  4. SaS
    <1%
  5. HLAS
    <1%
  6. S
    <1%
  7. KDH
    <1%
  8. D
    <1%
  9. SNS
    <1%
  10. MA
    <1%
  11. Pravda
    <1%
  12. SR
    <1%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. SaS
    99%
  2. HLAS
    98%
  3. S
    97%
  4. KDH
    97%
  5. D
    75%
  6. SNS
    42%
  7. MA
    3%
  8. Pravda
    3%
  9. SR
    1%

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

AKO: Projected composition of parliament

Based on this poll, 8 parties would clear the electoral threshold and enter the parliament of Slovakia: PS with 36 seats, SMER with 30 seats, Republika with 17 seats, SaS with 15 seats, HLAS with 15 seats, S with 14 seats, KDH with 13 seats and Demokrati with 10 seats.

Slovakia's Electoral System Explained

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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