Latest Opinion Poll for Slovakia (FOCUS, January 23, 2019)

January 16, 2019 - January 23, 2019

1013 respondents

Next General Election in Slovakia: 2027

The next General Election in Slovakia is expected in 2027.

Incumbent Government in Slovakia Without a Majority

Based on the FOCUS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 36.7% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from FOCUS?

According to the latest national poll in Slovakia by FOCUS, SMER leads with 22.5%. They are followed by SaS: 12.3%, Sme Rodina: 10.4%, OĽaNO: 10%, ĽSNS: 8.4%, SNS: 8%, KDH: 7%, Modrí, Most–Híd: 5.8%, PS: 4.9%, SPOLU: 3.5% and SMK–MKP: 3.4%. Other parties secure 3.8% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the FOCUS Projection?

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Slovakia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • SMER
    ??%
  • SaS
    ??%
  • SR
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • SMER
    ??%
  • SaS
    ??%
  • SR
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SaS
    ??%
  • SR
    ??%
  • SNS
    ??%
  • KDH
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
SaS + OĽaNO + Sme Rodina + SNS + KDH
Centre-Right
56.0%
SaS + OĽaNO + Sme Rodina + SNS + Modrí, Most–Híd
Centre-Right
54.7%
SMER + SaS + OĽaNO
Centre-Right
54.0%
SMER + SaS + KDH
Centre-Right
50.0%
SMER + SaS + Modrí, Most–Híd
Centre-Right
48.7%
SaS + OĽaNO + Sme Rodina + SNS
Centre-Right
48.0%
SMER + OĽaNO + KDH
Right
47.3%
SaS + OĽaNO + Sme Rodina + KDH
Centre-Right
46.7%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: FOCUS)

According to FOCUS, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Slovakia's National Council: SMER with 41 representatives, SaS with 22 representatives, Sme Rodina with 18 representatives, OĽaNO with 18 representatives, ĽSNS with 15 representatives, SNS with 14 representatives, KDH with 12 representatives and Modrí, Most–Híd with 10 representatives.

The Electoral System in Slovakia

Slovakia's National Council (Národná rada) comprises 150 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation with open lists, where the entire country constitutes a single electoral district. Voters cast their ballot for a party list but can influence the order of candidates through up to four preferential votes. If a candidate secures a specific number of preferential votes, they move up the list, granting voters direct influence over candidate selection.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the National Council, Slovakia applies varying electoral thresholds. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the national vote. For coalitions of two or three parties, the threshold stands at 7%, while alliances of four or more parties face a 10% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation by small, ad-hoc alliances. Votes cast for parties failing to clear these thresholds are forfeited in seat allocation, fostering the formation of stable parliamentary factions.

Government Formation and Traditions

As the electoral system rarely yields an absolute majority for any single party among the 150 seats, coalition governments are the norm in Slovakia. Following an election, the President typically tasks the leader of the strongest party with forming a government. Within 30 days of its appointment, the new government must present its program to the National Council and secure a vote of confidence. Slovakia's political landscape often features dynamic alliances, with negotiations frequently demanding intense compromises on economic and social policy.

Data Sources and Methodology

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