Latest Opinion Poll for Slovakia (FOCUS, October 22, 2019)

October 15, 2019 - October 22, 2019

1021 respondents

Next General Election in Slovakia: 2027

The next General Election in Slovakia is expected in 2027.

Incumbent Government in Slovakia Without a Majority

Based on the FOCUS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 34.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from FOCUS?

According to the latest national poll in Slovakia by FOCUS, SMER leads with 22%. They are followed by PS–SPOLU: 11%, ĽSNS: 10.2%, ZĽ: 9%, Sme Rodina: 7.2%, KDH: 6.5%, SNS: 6.4%, OĽaNO: 6%, SaS: 5.2%, Modrí, Most–Híd: 3.8%, SMK–MKP: 3.2%, DV: 2.4% and V: 1.8%. Other parties secure 5.3% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the FOCUS Projection?

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Slovakia is 5%.

SMER + ZĽ + KDH + OĽaNO
Right
52.7%
SMER + ZĽ + KDH + SaS
Centre-Right
51.3%
SMER + ZĽ + OĽaNO + SaS
Centre-Right
50.7%
SMER + KDH + OĽaNO + SaS
Right
48.0%
ZĽ + Sme Rodina + KDH + OĽaNO + SNS + SaS
Centre-Right
48.0%
SMER + ZĽ + KDH
Right
45.3%
SMER + ZĽ + OĽaNO
Right
44.7%
SMER + ZĽ + SaS
Centre-Right
43.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: FOCUS)

According to FOCUS, 9 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Slovakia's National Council: SMER with 40 representatives, PS–SPOLU with 20 representatives, ĽSNS with 18 representatives, ZĽ with 16 representatives, Sme Rodina with 13 representatives, KDH with 12 representatives, SNS with 11 representatives, OĽaNO with 11 representatives and SaS with 9 representatives.

The Electoral System in Slovakia

Slovakia's National Council (Národná rada) comprises 150 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation with open lists, where the entire country constitutes a single electoral district. Voters cast their ballot for a party list but can influence the order of candidates through up to four preferential votes. If a candidate secures a specific number of preferential votes, they move up the list, granting voters direct influence over candidate selection.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the National Council, Slovakia applies varying electoral thresholds. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the national vote. For coalitions of two or three parties, the threshold stands at 7%, while alliances of four or more parties face a 10% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation by small, ad-hoc alliances. Votes cast for parties failing to clear these thresholds are forfeited in seat allocation, fostering the formation of stable parliamentary factions.

Government Formation and Traditions

As the electoral system rarely yields an absolute majority for any single party among the 150 seats, coalition governments are the norm in Slovakia. Following an election, the President typically tasks the leader of the strongest party with forming a government. Within 30 days of its appointment, the new government must present its program to the National Council and secure a vote of confidence. Slovakia's political landscape often features dynamic alliances, with negotiations frequently demanding intense compromises on economic and social policy.

Data Sources and Methodology

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