Latest Opinion Poll for Slovakia (Ipsos, June 23, 2026)

June 17, 2026 - June 23, 2026

1035 respondents

Next General Election in Slovakia: 2027

The next General Election in Slovakia is expected in 2027.

Incumbent Government in Slovakia Without a Majority

Based on the Ipsos projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 30.7% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Ipsos?

According to the latest national poll in Slovakia by Ipsos, PS leads with 20.2%. They are followed by SMER: 19%, Republika: 10%, SaS: 8.8%, S: 7.3%, HLAS: 6.8%, KDH: 6.5%, Demokrati: 5.1%, Magyar Aliancia: 4.7%, SNS: 3.4%, Sme Rodina: 2.8% and Slovenská Pravda: 2.3%. Other parties secure 3.1% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Ipsos Projection?

81

PolitPro Score

Ipsos achieved a PolitPro Score of 81 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Ipsos's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Slovakia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • PS
    ??%
  • SMER
    ??%
  • REP
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • PS
    ??%
  • SMER
    ??%
  • REP
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SaS
    ??%
  • S
    ??%
  • HLAS
    ??%
  • KDH
    ??%
  • D
    ??%
  • MA
    ??%
  • SNS
    ??%
  • SR
    ??%
  • Pravda
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

PS + SMER + SaS
Centre
58.0%
PS + SMER + S
Centre
56.0%
PS + SMER + HLAS
Centre
55.3%
SMER + SaS + S + KDH + Demokrati
Right
55.3%
PS + SMER + KDH
Centre-Right
54.7%
SMER + SaS + HLAS + KDH + Demokrati
Centre-Right
54.7%
PS + S + HLAS + KDH + Demokrati
Centre-Left
54.7%
PS + SMER + Demokrati
Centre
53.3%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Ipsos)

According to Ipsos, 8 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Slovakia's National Council: PS with 37 representatives, SMER with 34 representatives, Republika with 18 representatives, SaS with 16 representatives, S with 13 representatives, HLAS with 12 representatives, KDH with 11 representatives and Demokrati with 9 representatives.

The Electoral System in Slovakia

Slovakia's National Council (Národná rada) comprises 150 members elected for a four-year term. The electoral system employs pure proportional representation with open lists, where the entire country constitutes a single electoral district. Voters cast their ballot for a party list but can influence the order of candidates through up to four preferential votes. If a candidate secures a specific number of preferential votes, they move up the list, granting voters direct influence over candidate selection.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the National Council, Slovakia applies varying electoral thresholds. Individual parties must secure at least 5% of the national vote. For coalitions of two or three parties, the threshold stands at 7%, while alliances of four or more parties face a 10% hurdle. This regulation aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation by small, ad-hoc alliances. Votes cast for parties failing to clear these thresholds are forfeited in seat allocation, fostering the formation of stable parliamentary factions.

Government Formation and Traditions

As the electoral system rarely yields an absolute majority for any single party among the 150 seats, coalition governments are the norm in Slovakia. Following an election, the President typically tasks the leader of the strongest party with forming a government. Within 30 days of its appointment, the new government must present its program to the National Council and secure a vote of confidence. Slovakia's political landscape often features dynamic alliances, with negotiations frequently demanding intense compromises on economic and social policy.

Data Sources and Methodology

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