Latest Election Polls by Median

About Median

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by Median

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
Demokrati
Centre-Right
20
60
20
HLAS
Centre-Left
56
44
0
KDH
Christian Democratic
6
94
0
Magyar Aliancia
Centre-Right
PS
Liberal
0
50
50
Republika
Far-Right
20
30
50
SaS
Liberal
25
56
19
Sme Rodina
Right-wing Populist
13
80
7
SMER
Social Democratic
38
50
13
SNS
Right-wing Populist
7
93
0
Liberal
0
100
0

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of Median

2.0

Election Accuracy

On average, Median's figures deviate by 2.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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