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Latest Opinion Poll for Slovenia (Ninamedia, July 12, 2023).

July 10, 2023 - July 12, 2023

700 respondents

Next General Election in Slovenia: 2030

The next General Election in Slovenia is expected in 2030.

Slovenia's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority.

Based on the Ninamedia projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 41.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Ninamedia?

According to the latest national poll in Slovenia by Ninamedia, Svoboda leads with 37.7%. They are followed by SDS: 30.3%, SD: 11%, NSi: 9.9% and Levica: 7.5%. Other parties secure 3.6% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Slovenia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Slovenia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Ninamedia Projection?

62

PolitPro Score

Ninamedia achieved a PolitPro Score of 62 out of 100.

1.8

Election Accuracy

On average, Ninamedia's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Ninamedia at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Slovenia is 4%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • GS
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  • SDS
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • GS
    ??%
  • SDS
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SD
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
Svoboda + SD
Centre-Left
51.1%
Svoboda + NSi
Centre-Left
50.0%
Svoboda + Levica
Left
47.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Ninamedia)

According to Ninamedia, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Slovenia's parliament: Svoboda with 36 representatives, SDS with 28 representatives, SD with 10 representatives, NSi with 9 representatives and Levica with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Slovenia

The Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) comprises 90 deputies, elected for four-year terms. Its electoral system employs a two-stage proportional representation model: 88 seats are allocated across eight electoral districts, each subdivided into eleven electoral units. Voters cast a ballot for a candidate in their unit, which simultaneously counts as a vote for that candidate's party. Seat allocation first occurs at the district level using the Droop quota, followed by a national-level adjustment via the D'Hondt method to ensure overall proportionality. Two seats are specifically reserved for the Italian and Hungarian minorities, elected through the Borda count (preferential voting) system.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the National Assembly, Slovenia enforces a nationwide electoral threshold of 4%. Parties must secure this share of the national vote to qualify for the distribution of the 88 proportional seats. This threshold aims to stabilize Slovenia's often fragmented party system, preventing numerous smaller parties from complicating government formation. The two deputies representing national minorities are exempt from this threshold, as they are determined through separate electoral processes.

Government Formation and Traditions

Given that the electoral system often produces a multi-party parliament, coalition governments are inevitable in Slovenia. Following an election, the President of the Republic nominates a candidate for Prime Minister to the National Assembly. The election proceeds by secret ballot, requiring an absolute majority of deputies (46 out of 90 votes). Slovenian politics frequently sees new parties, often formed just before an election ('New Faces'), achieve significant electoral success and play a pivotal role in government formation, leading to a highly dynamic political landscape.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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