Spain's General Election: Final Results

General election in Spain 2019

Spanish Election Results: April 28, 2019

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Spain is 3%.

Voter Turnout

Voter turnout was 71.8%.

Seat Distribution and Mathematical Majorities

The current government loses its majority

The incumbent governing parties secured 34.3% of the seats.

PSOE + Partido Popular
Centre-Left
52.6%
PSOE + Ciudadanos
Centre-Left
50.1%
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + ERC
Left
50.1%
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + Junts per Catalunya
Left
47.9%
Partido Popular + Ciudadanos + Vox + Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco + Junts per Catalunya
Centre-Right
47.1%
PSOE + Unidos Podemos
Left
46.0%
Partido Popular + Ciudadanos + Vox + Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
Centre-Right
45.1%
PSOE + ERC + Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
Centre-Left
42.6%

Polling Accuracy: How Precise Were the Forecasts?

Comparison: Pre-Election Polls vs. Actual Election Results

0.56

Simple Lógica

The final poll by Simple Lógica deviated by an average of 0.56 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +1.8
  • PP
    ±0.0
  • Cs
    -0.4
  • UP
    +0.1
  • Vox
    -0.5
1.02

Instituto DYM

The final poll by Instituto DYM deviated by an average of 1.02 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +0.3
  • PP
    +3.7
  • Cs
    -0.4
  • UP
    -0.6
  • Vox
    +0.1
1.05

Key Data

The final poll by Key Data deviated by an average of 1.05 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +0.1
  • PP
    +4.1
  • Cs
    -0.3
  • UP
    -0.8
  • Vox
    -0.5
  • ERC
    -0.5
1.07

IMOP

The final poll by IMOP deviated by an average of 1.07 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +1.1
  • PP
    +3.1
  • Cs
    -0.8
  • UP
    -0.2
  • Vox
    -0.3
  • ERC
    -0.9
1.12

SocioMétrica

The final poll by SocioMétrica deviated by an average of 1.12 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +0.8
  • PP
    +1.5
  • Cs
    -0.8
  • UP
    -0.7
  • Vox
    +2.3
  • ERC
    -0.6
1.15

40dB

The final poll by 40dB deviated by an average of 1.15 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +0.1
  • PP
    +1.1
  • Cs
    -1.8
  • UP
    -1.1
  • Vox
    +2.2
  • ERC
    -0.6
1.16

Metroscopia

The final poll by Metroscopia deviated by an average of 1.16 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +0.4
  • PP
    +2.9
  • UP
    ±0.0
  • Cs
    -1.7
  • Vox
    +0.8
1.20

Sigma Dos

The final poll by Sigma Dos deviated by an average of 1.20 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +1.6
  • PP
    +3.4
  • Cs
    -0.9
  • UP
    -1.1
  • Vox
    -0.1
  • ERC
    -0.1
1.32

Sondaxe

The final poll by Sondaxe deviated by an average of 1.32 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +2.2
  • PP
    +1.6
  • Cs
    -2.1
  • UP
    -0.7
  • Vox
    +0.2
  • ERC
    -1.1
1.55

Invymark

The final poll by Invymark deviated by an average of 1.55 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    -0.6
  • PP
    +3.7
  • Cs
    -0.7
  • UP
    -1.3
  • Vox
    +2.4
  • ERC
    -0.6
1.88

GESOP

The final poll by GESOP deviated by an average of 1.88 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +1.1
  • PP
    +4.3
  • Cs
    -1.4
  • UP
    -2.3
  • Vox
    +0.3
1.90

EM-Analytics

The final poll by EM-Analytics deviated by an average of 1.90 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    -1.2
  • PP
    +3.2
  • Cs
    -1.6
  • Vox
    +2.2
  • UP
    -2.0
  • ERC
    -1.2
1.93

Demoscopia y Servicios

The final poll by Demoscopia y Servicios deviated by an average of 1.93 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    -0.3
  • PP
    +4.9
  • Cs
    -1.2
  • UP
    -1.6
  • Vox
    +2.1
  • ERC
    -1.5
2.00

Celeste-Tel

The final poll by Celeste-Tel deviated by an average of 2.00 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +0.2
  • PP
    +6.8
  • Cs
    -0.8
  • UP
    -0.8
  • Vox
    -2.4
  • ERC
    -1.0
2.02

GAD3

The final poll by GAD3 deviated by an average of 2.02 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    +2.8
  • PP
    +3.4
  • Cs
    -2.0
  • UP
    -2.2
  • Vox
    +1.1
  • ERC
    -0.6
2.05

NC Report

The final poll by NC Report deviated by an average of 2.05 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    -0.6
  • PP
    +7.1
  • Cs
    -1.0
  • UP
    -1.3
  • Vox
    -1.3
  • ERC
    -1.0
2.67

Top Position

The final poll by Top Position deviated by an average of 2.67 percentage points per party from the actual Spanish election results.
  • PSOE
    -0.9
  • PP
    +5.6
  • Vox
    +3.9
  • Cs
    -2.8
  • UP
    -2.1
  • ERC
    -0.7

Party Results: Vote Shares and Gains/Losses

Data Sources and Methodology

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ParlGov – Parliamentary Democracy Data

A comprehensive research database from the University of Bremen, documenting parties, elections, and governments for comparative analysis.

Additional Sources

Döring, Holger and Philip Manow. 2024. Parliaments and governments database (ParlGov).

CHES – Chapel Hill Expert Survey

The leading expert survey on party positions in Europe. Over 400 political scientists document party stances based on rigorous scientific criteria.

Additional Sources

Rovny, Jan, et al. “25 Years of Political Party Positions in Europe: The Chapel Hill Expert Survey, 1999-2024.”