Current election polls and polling data from Celeste-Tel

Latest voting intention survey by Celeste-Tel for Spain

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by Celeste-Tel, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 34.1%, PSOE 28.1%, Vox 14.3%, Sumar 6.2%, Podemos 5.1%, SALF 2.1%, Junts per Catalunya 1.9%, ERC 1.7%, EH Bildu 1.3%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.1%, Galego 0.8%, Coalición Canaria 0.5% and UPN 0.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1100 people during the period 11.01.2025 - 11.01.2025. The survey was commissioned by Onda Cero.
1100 participants
07.01.2025 - 11.01.2025
Celeste-Tel
Onda Cero
PP
34.1
-0.8
PSOE
28.1
-0.6
Vox
14.3
+1.9
Sumar
6.2
+0.4
POD
5.1
±0.0
SALF
2.1
+0.2
JxC
1.9
-0.1
ERC
1.7
+0.1
Bildu
1.3
-0.2
PNV
1.1
-0.2
BNG
0.8
±0.0
CC
0.5
±0.0
UPN
0.2
±0.0
Others
2.6
-0.7

Seats in parliament

350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
25
7.1%
POD
20
5.7%
PSOE
112
32%
PP
136
38.9%
Vox
57
16.3%
Partido Popular + PSOE
70.9%
Partido Popular + Vox
55.1%
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
44.9%

74

PolitPro Score

Celeste-Tel achieves a score of 74/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
Bildu
0
100
0
ERC
0
98
2
JxC
0
100
0
PNV
0
100
0
POD
0
100
0
PP
3
35
62
PSOE
11
71
17
SALF
Not enough data available
Sumar
11
89
0
Vox
37
61
2

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.9

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Celeste-Tel pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.9 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.