Latest voting intention survey by Demoscopia y Servicios for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by Demoscopia y Servicios, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 25.9%, PSOE 25.3%, Vox 16.9%, Unidos Podemos 10.3%, Más País 5.1%, ERC 3.4%, Junts per Catalunya 2.7%, Ciudadanos 2.3%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.6%, EH Bildu 1.3%, CUP 1%, Galego 0.6%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and PRC 0.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 06.05.2021 - 06.05.2021. The survey was commissioned by ESdiario.
1000 participants
06.05.2021 - 06.05.2021
Demoscopia y Servicios
ESdiario
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
UP
42
12%
MP
20
5.7%
PSOE
102
29.1%
ERC
13
3.7%
PP
105
30%
Vox
68
19.4%
Partido Popular + PSOE
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + Más País + ERC
Partido Popular + Vox
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Partido Popular higher
In 36% of election polls, Demoscopia y Servicios rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSOE lower
In 50% of election polls Demoscopia y Servicios rates PSOE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Demoscopia y Servicios pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.7 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 12/17 |
|
2.02
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 10/14 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.