Latest voting intention survey by GAD3 for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by GAD3, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 32.5%, PSOE 27.7%, Vox 15.6%, Sumar 6%, Podemos 4% and SALF 2.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1036 people during the period 14.11.2024 - 14.11.2024.
1036 participants
11.11.2024 - 14.11.2024
GAD3
PP
32.5
-1.6
PSOE
27.7
-0.5
Vox
15.6
+2.7
Sumar
6.0
-2.4
POD
4.0
+0.7
SALF
2.3
+0.4
Others
11.9
+0.7
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
24
6.9%
POD
16
4.6%
PSOE
113
32.3%
PP
133
38%
Vox
64
18.3%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
70
PolitPro Score
GAD3 achieves a score of 70/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.4
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in GAD3 pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.4 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.77
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 3/19 |
|
2.02
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 10/15 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.