Latest voting intention survey by GAD3 for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by GAD3, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 32.5%, PSOE 27.7%, Vox 15.6%, Sumar 6%, Podemos 4% and SALF 2.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1036 people during the period 14.11.2024 - 14.11.2024.
1036 participants
11.11.2024 - 14.11.2024
GAD3
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
24
6.9%
POD
16
4.6%
PSOE
113
32.3%
PP
133
38%
Vox
64
18.3%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Partido Popular higher
In 52% of election polls, GAD3 rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSOE higher
In 35% of election polls, GAD3 rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Vox lower
In 33% of election polls GAD3 rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in GAD3 pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.4 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.77
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 3/17 |
|
2.02
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 9/14 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.