Latest polls from GAD3
36.6
28.5
12.7
11.6
2.2
1.6
1.3
1.2
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.1
2.6
36.6
27.7
12.4
11.2
2.3
1.9
1.4
1.3
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.1
3
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Partido Popular higher
In 56% of election polls, GAD3 rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates PSOE higher
In 38% of election polls, GAD3 rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Vox lower
In 36% of election polls GAD3 rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in GAD3 pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, GAD3's average ranking is 7.7.
0x the most accurate prediction
2
0x the second best prediction
3
1x the third best prediction
4
0x on rank 4
5
0x on rank 5
6
0x on rank 6
7
1x on rank 7
8
0x on rank 8
9
0x on rank 9
10
0x on rank 10
11
0x on rank 11
12
0x on rank 12
13
1x on rank 13