Latest voting intention survey by Hamalgama for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by Hamalgama, the parties received the following results: PSOE 26.8%, Partido Popular 22.7%, Vox 15%, Unidos Podemos 13.4%, Ciudadanos 5.3%, ERC 3.6%, Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 2.5%, Coalició Compromís 1.6%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.5% and EH Bildu 1.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 17.04.2020 - 17.04.2020. The survey was commissioned by OKDIARIO.
1000 participants
14.04.2020 - 17.04.2020
Hamalgama
OKDIARIO
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
UP
54
15.4%
PSOE
108
30.9%
ERC
14
4%
Cs
21
6%
PP
92
26.3%
Vox
61
17.4%
PSOE + Partido Popular
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + ERC
Partido Popular + Vox + Ciudadanos
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Hamalgama pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.17
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 8/17 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.