Latest voting intention survey by IMOP for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by IMOP, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 32.6%, PSOE 26.2%, Vox 15.3%, Sumar 13.3%, ERC 2.6%, Junts per Catalunya 2.1%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.4%, EH Bildu 1.3%, EV 1%, CUP 0.8%, UPN 0.4% and Coalición Canaria 0.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1043 people during the period 29.06.2023 - 29.06.2023. The survey was commissioned by El Confidencial.
1043 participants
27.06.2023 - 29.06.2023
IMOP
El Confidencial
PP
32.6
-0.7
PSOE
26.2
+1.7
Vox
15.3
+0.4
Sumar
13.3
-1.7
ERC
2.6
+0.3
JxC
2.1
-0.1
PNV
1.4
±0.0
Bildu
1.3
+0.1
EV
1.0
+0.8
CUP
0.8
+0.1
UPN
0.4
+0.1
CC
0.3
±0.0
Others
2.7
-1.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
53
15.1%
PSOE
105
30%
PP
131
37.4%
Vox
61
17.4%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar
70
PolitPro Score
IMOP achieves a score of 70/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.2
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in IMOP pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.2 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.42
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 13/19 |
|
1.07
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 3/15 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.