Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 33.8%, PSOE 28.4%, Vox 14.5%, Sumar 5.9%, Podemos 3.4%, ERC 2%, SALF 1.9%, Junts per Catalunya 1.6%, EH Bildu 1.4%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1178 people during the period 22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by La Vanguardia.
1178 participants
18.11.2024 - 22.11.2024
Ipsos
La Vanguardia
PP
33.8
-1.5
PSOE
28.4
+0.2
Vox
14.5
+1.9
Sumar
5.9
-7.0
POD
3.4
+3.4
ERC
2.0
+0.4
SALF
1.9
+1.9
JxC
1.6
-0.2
Bildu
1.4
+0.1
PNV
1.3
+0.1
BNG
0.7
+0.1
CC
0.4
+0.1
UPN
0.2
+0.2
Others
4.5
+0.3
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
24
6.9%
POD
14
4%
PSOE
115
32.9%
PP
138
39.4%
Vox
59
16.9%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
62
PolitPro Score
Ipsos achieves a score of 62/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.5
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.63
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2023 | 3/10 |
|
1.32
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 10/19 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.