Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by Ipsos, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 33.8%, PSOE 28.4%, Vox 14.5%, Sumar 5.9%, Podemos 3.4%, ERC 2%, SALF 1.9%, Junts per Catalunya 1.6%, EH Bildu 1.4%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1178 people during the period 22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by La Vanguardia.
1178 participants
22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024
Ipsos
La Vanguardia
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
24
6.9%
POD
14
4%
PSOE
115
33%
PP
138
39.3%
Vox
59
16.9%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
1.63
1.32
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.