Latest voting intention survey by Sigma Dos for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by Sigma Dos, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 34.4%, PSOE 27.1%, Vox 12.4%, Sumar 6.4%, Podemos 4.7%, SALF 3.3%, ERC 1.9%, Junts per Catalunya 1.8%, EH Bildu 1.1%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1%, Galego 1%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2485 people during the period 26.12.2024 - 26.12.2024. The survey was commissioned by El Mundo.
2485 participants
19.12.2024 - 26.12.2024
Sigma Dos
El Mundo
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
SALF
13
3.7%
Sumar
25
7.1%
POD
18
5.1%
PSOE
108
30.9%
PP
137
39.1%
Vox
49
14%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos + SALF
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Partido Popular higher
In 32% of election polls, Sigma Dos rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.1
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Sigma Dos pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.93
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 5/19 |
|
1.2
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 7/15 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.