Latest voting intention survey by SW Demoscopia for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by SW Demoscopia, the parties received the following results: PSOE 24.7%, Partido Popular 23.8%, Vox 19.8%, Unidos Podemos 10.9%, ERC 3.8%, Más País 2.8%, Junts per Catalunya 1.8%, Ciudadanos 1.7%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.7%, EH Bildu 1.4%, CUP 1%, Coalición Canaria 0.5%, Navarra Suma 0.2% and PRC 0.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1002 people during the period 01.07.2022 - 01.07.2022.
1002 participants
29.06.2022 - 01.07.2022
SW Demoscopia
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
UP
46
13.1%
PSOE
104
29.7%
ERC
16
4.6%
PP
100
28.6%
Vox
84
24%
PSOE + Partido Popular
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + ERC
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Partido Popular lower
In 58% of election polls SW Demoscopia rates Partido Popular lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Vox higher
In 92% of election polls, SW Demoscopia rates Vox higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.0
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in SW Demoscopia pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.95
|
Parliamentary Election in Spanien 2019 | 7/19 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.