Latest voting intention survey by Target Point for Spain
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Spain conducted by Target Point, the parties received the following results: Partido Popular 32.2%, PSOE 28.3%, Vox 14.6%, Sumar 5.7%, Podemos 4.7% and SALF 2.9%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1303 people during the period 22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by eldebate.es.
1303 participants
22.11.2024 - 22.11.2024
Target Point
eldebate.es
Seats in parliament
350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
23
6.7%
POD
19
5.5%
PSOE
116
33.1%
PP
132
37.7%
Vox
60
17.1%
Partido Popular + PSOE
Partido Popular + Vox
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
Rating of parties
Institute often rates PSOE lower
In 31% of election polls Target Point rates PSOE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Vox higher
In 31% of election polls, Target Point rates Vox higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Target Point pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.