GAD3 achieved a PolitPro Score of 70 out of 100.
On average, GAD3's figures deviate by 1.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 21% of polls, GAD3 rated ERC higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 51% of polls, GAD3 rated Partido Popular higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 34% of polls, GAD3 rated PSOE higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 78% of polls, GAD3 rated Sumar lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 26% of polls, GAD3 rated Vox lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.
On average, GAD3's figures deviate by 1.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
With an average deviation of 0.77 percentage points per party, GAD3 ranks 3 out of 19.
With an average deviation of 2.02 percentage points per party, GAD3 ranks 10 out of 15.
Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).
