GESOP achieved a PolitPro Score of 63 out of 100.
On average, GESOP's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 23% of polls, GESOP rated PSOE higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 57% of polls, GESOP rated Vox higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 61% of polls, GESOP rated Partido Popular lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 30% of polls, GESOP rated PSOE lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 82% of polls, GESOP rated Sumar lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.
On average, GESOP's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
With an average deviation of 2.88 percentage points per party, GESOP ranks 10 out of 10.
With an average deviation of 0.62 percentage points per party, GESOP ranks 1 out of 19.
Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).
