Latest Election Polls by Simple Lógica

About Simple Lógica

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by Simple Lógica

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
Partido Popular
Centre-Right
35
53
13
PSOE
Social Democratic
15
58
28
Se Acabó La Fiesta
Far-Right
Sumar
Left
80
20
0
Vox
Right-wing Populist
15
53
33

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of Simple Lógica

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Election Accuracy

On average, Simple Lógica's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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