Latest Election Polls by Sondaxe

About Sondaxe

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by Sondaxe

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
EH Bildu
Left
0
86
14
ERC
Centre-Left
Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco
Christian Democratic
0
100
0
Junts per Catalunya
Transversal
Partido Popular
Centre-Right
50
50
0
Podemos
Left-wing
PSOE
Social Democratic
50
25
25
Sumar
Left
Vox
Right-wing Populist
0
38
63

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of Sondaxe

1.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Sondaxe's figures deviate by 1.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

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