Spain
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Spain: Poll by GAD3 from 31.10.2019

Polling data

PSOE
27.4
+0.1
PP
21.6
-0.1
Vox
14.9
+1.4
UP
11.2
-1.5
Cs
8.0
-0.9
ERC
3.5
+0.3
Comp
2.8
±0.0
PNV
1.5
+0.1
PDeCAT
1.4
-0.2
Bildu
0.8
-0.1
CC
0.4
±0.0
Sonst.
6.5
+0.9
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PSOE
-4.3
PP
-11.5
Vox
+2.5
UP
New
Cs
New
ERC
+1.6
Comp
New
PNV
+0.4
PDeCAT
New
Bildu
-0.6
CC
-0.1
GAD3 – 7900 respondents – 14.10.2019-31.10.2019

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular higher

In 54% of election polls, GAD3 rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 36% of election polls, GAD3 rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Unidos Podemos lower

In 55% of election polls GAD3 rates Unidos Podemos lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox lower

In 34% of election polls GAD3 rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Spain from GAD3 shows the following results: PSOE 27.4%, Partido Popular 21.6%, Vox 14.9%, Unidos Podemos 11.2%, Ciudadanos 8%, ERC 3.5%, Coalició Compromís 2.8%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.5%, Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 1.4%, EH Bildu 0.8% and Coalición Canaria 0.4%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Vox might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.5 growth since the last election. Partido Popular, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-11.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 31.6% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by GAD3. For this purpose, 7900 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 17 days (14.10.2019 - 31.10.2019).

Coalition possibilities

350
UP
45
PSOE
111
ERC
14
Cs
32
PP
88
Vox
60
Majority requires 176 seats
PSOE + Partido Popular
199
Partido Popular + Vox + Ciudadanos
180
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + ERC
170

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by GAD3. The survey took place between 14.10.2019 and 31.10.2019 among 7900 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSOE 27.4%, Partido Popular 21.6%, Vox 14.9%, Unidos Podemos 11.2%, Ciudadanos 8%, ERC 3.5%, Coalició Compromís 2.8%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.5%, Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 1.4%, EH Bildu 0.8% and Coalición Canaria 0.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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