Spain
Election trend
Parties

Spain: Poll by Celeste-Tel from 31.10.2019

Polling data

PSOE
27.6
+0.4
PP
21.9
-0.3
UP
12.9
±0.0
Vox
12.0
+1.5
Cs
9.2
-0.8
ERC
3.9
-0.1
Comp
3.2
-1.2
PDeCAT
1.7
+0.1
PNV
1.6
±0.0
Bildu
1.0
±0.0
CC
0.8
+0.1
Sonst.
4.2
+0.3
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PSOE
-4.1
PP
-11.2
UP
Vox
-0.4
Cs
ERC
+2.0
Comp
PDeCAT
PNV
+0.5
Bildu
-0.4
CC
+0.3
Celeste-Tel – 1100 respondents – 25.10.2019-31.10.2019
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates Partido Popular higher
In 63% of election polls, Celeste-Tel rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Vox lower
In 40% of election polls Celeste-Tel rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Spain from Celeste-Tel shows the following results: PSOE 27.6%, Partido Popular 21.9%, Unidos Podemos 12.9%, Vox 12%, Ciudadanos 9.2%, ERC 3.9%, Coalició Compromís 3.2%, Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 1.7%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.6%, EH Bildu 1% and Coalición Canaria 0.8%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, ERC might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.0 growth since the last election. Partido Popular, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-11.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 30.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Celeste-Tel. For this purpose, 1100 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (25.10.2019 - 31.10.2019).

Coalition possibilities

350
UP
50
Comp
12
PSOE
107
ERC
15
Cs
35
PP
85
Vox
46
Majority requires 176 seats
PSOE + Partido Popular
192
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + ERC
172
Partido Popular + Vox + Ciudadanos
166

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by Celeste-Tel. The survey took place between 25.10.2019 and 31.10.2019 among 1100 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSOE 27.6%, Partido Popular 21.9%, Unidos Podemos 12.9%, Vox 12%, Ciudadanos 9.2%, ERC 3.9%, Coalició Compromís 3.2%, Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 1.7%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.6%, EH Bildu 1% and Coalición Canaria 0.8%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.