Spain: Poll by SW Demoscopia from 02.11.2019

Spain: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PSOE
28.5
±0.0
PP
20.3
±0.0
Vox
13.7
±0.0
UP
12.0
±0.0
Cs
8.8
±0.0
Comp
4.7
±0.0
ERC
4.0
±0.0
PDeCAT
1.4
±0.0
Others
6.6
±0.0
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PSOE
-3.2
PP
-12.8
Vox
+1.3
UP
New
Cs
New
Comp
New
ERC
+2.1
PDeCAT
New
SW Demoscopia – 1517 respondents – 28.10.2019-02.11.2019

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular lower

In 58% of election polls SW Demoscopia rates Partido Popular lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox higher

In 92% of election polls, SW Demoscopia rates Vox higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from SW Demoscopia shows the following results: PSOE 28.5%, Partido Popular 20.3%, Vox 13.7%, Unidos Podemos 12%, Ciudadanos 8.8%, Coalició Compromís 4.7%, ERC 4% and Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 1.4%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, ERC might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.1 growth since the last election. Partido Popular, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-12.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 31.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by SW Demoscopia. For this purpose, 1517 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (28.10.2019 - 02.11.2019).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
UP
45
12.9%
Comp
18
5.1%
PSOE
109
31.1%
ERC
15
4.3%
Cs
33
9.4%
PP
78
22.3%
Vox
52
14.9%
PSOE + Partido Popular
53.4%
PSOE + Unidos Podemos + ERC
48.3%
Partido Popular + Vox + Ciudadanos
46.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by SW Demoscopia. The survey took place between 28.10.2019 and 02.11.2019 among 1517 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSOE 28.5%, Partido Popular 20.3%, Vox 13.7%, Unidos Podemos 12%, Ciudadanos 8.8%, Coalició Compromís 4.7%, ERC 4% and Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 1.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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