Spain: Poll by GAD3 from 24.03.2023

Spain: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PP
32.4
-1.5
PSOE
27.6
+0.7
Vox
14.9
+1.5
UP
8.9
-0.7
ERC
2.3
-0.1
JxC
1.9
+0.2
Cs
1.7
+0.3
MP
1.6
-0.8
PNV
1.2
-0.2
Bildu
1.0
±0.0
CUP
0.7
-0.1
BNG
0.6
-0.1
CC
0.5
±0.0
NA+
0.2
+0.2
PRC
0.2
±0.0
TE
0.1
±0.0
Others
4.2
+0.6
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
-0.7
PSOE
-4.1
Vox
+2.5
UP
New
ERC
+0.4
JxC
+0.3
Cs
New
MP
New
PNV
+0.1
Bildu
-0.4
CUP
+0.3
BNG
±0.0
CC
±0.0
NA+
New
PRC
New
TE
New
GAD3 – 1011 respondents – 22.03.2023-24.03.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular higher

In 52% of election polls, GAD3 rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 35% of election polls, GAD3 rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Unidos Podemos lower

In 55% of election polls GAD3 rates Unidos Podemos lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox lower

In 33% of election polls GAD3 rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from GAD3 shows the following results: Partido Popular 32.4%, PSOE 27.6%, Vox 14.9%, Unidos Podemos 8.9%, ERC 2.3%, Junts per Catalunya 1.9%, Ciudadanos 1.7%, Más País 1.6%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2%, EH Bildu 1%, CUP 0.7%, Galego 0.6%, Coalición Canaria 0.5%, Navarra Suma 0.2%, PRC 0.2% and ¡Teruel Existe! 0.1%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Vox might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.5 growth since the last election. PSOE, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 32.9% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by GAD3. For this purpose, 1011 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (22.03.2023 - 24.03.2023).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
UP
37
10.6%
PSOE
115
32.9%
PP
136
38.9%
Vox
62
17.7%
Partido Popular + PSOE
71.7%
Partido Popular + Vox
56.6%
PSOE + Unidos Podemos
43.4%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by GAD3. The survey took place between 22.03.2023 and 24.03.2023 among 1011 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 32.4%, PSOE 27.6%, Vox 14.9%, Unidos Podemos 8.9%, ERC 2.3%, Junts per Catalunya 1.9%, Ciudadanos 1.7%, Más País 1.6%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.2%, EH Bildu 1%, CUP 0.7%, Galego 0.6%, Coalición Canaria 0.5%, Navarra Suma 0.2%, PRC 0.2% and ¡Teruel Existe! 0.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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