Spain: Poll by CIS from 05.07.2023

Spain: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PSOE
31.0
-0.2
PP
29.6
-1.8
Sumar
15.5
-0.9
Vox
11.7
+1.1
ERC
1.7
+0.1
Bildu
1.2
±0.0
PNV
1.1
+0.1
JxC
1.1
±0.0
BNG
0.8
-0.2
CUP
0.6
±0.0
UPN
0.2
+0.2
TE
0.1
±0.0
CC
0.1
-0.2
Others
5.3
+1.8
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PSOE
-0.7
PP
-3.5
Sumar
+3.2
Vox
-0.7
ERC
-0.2
Bildu
-0.2
PNV
±0.0
JxC
-0.5
BNG
+0.2
CUP
+0.2
UPN
±0.0
TE
New
CC
-0.4
CIS – 4166 respondents – 30.06.2023-05.07.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular lower

In 81% of election polls CIS rates Partido Popular lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 92% of election polls, CIS rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Sumar higher

In 30% of election polls, CIS rates Sumar higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox lower

In 64% of election polls CIS rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from CIS shows the following results: PSOE 31%, Partido Popular 29.6%, Sumar 15.5%, Vox 11.7%, ERC 1.7%, EH Bildu 1.2%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.1%, Junts per Catalunya 1.1%, Galego 0.8%, CUP 0.6%, UPN 0.2%, ¡Teruel Existe! 0.1% and Coalición Canaria 0.1%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Sumar might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.2 growth since the last election. Partido Popular, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 53.1% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by CIS. For this purpose, 4166 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (30.06.2023 - 05.07.2023).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
62
17.7%
PSOE
124
35.4%
PP
118
33.7%
Vox
46
13.1%
PSOE + Partido Popular
69.1%
PSOE + Sumar
53.1%
Partido Popular + Vox
46.9%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by CIS. The survey took place between 30.06.2023 and 05.07.2023 among 4166 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSOE 31%, Partido Popular 29.6%, Sumar 15.5%, Vox 11.7%, ERC 1.7%, EH Bildu 1.2%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.1%, Junts per Catalunya 1.1%, Galego 0.8%, CUP 0.6%, UPN 0.2%, ¡Teruel Existe! 0.1% and Coalición Canaria 0.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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