Spain: Poll by 40dB from 02.10.2023

Polling data

PP
34.2
+0.4
PSOE
32.1
-0.2
Vox
11.7
+0.8
Sumar
11.1
-0.9
Others
10.9
-0.1
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
+1.1
PSOE
+0.4
Vox
-0.7
Sumar
-1.2
40dB – 2000 respondents – 29.09.2023-02.10.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular lower

In 56% of election polls 40dB rates Partido Popular lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 32% of election polls, 40dB rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Sumar lower

In 35% of election polls 40dB rates Sumar lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from 40dB shows the following results: Partido Popular 34.2%, PSOE 32.1%, Vox 11.7% and Sumar 11.1%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Partido Popular might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.1 growth since the last election. Sumar, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 48.3% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by 40dB. For this purpose, 2000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (29.09.2023 - 02.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
43
12.3%
PSOE
126
36%
PP
135
38.6%
Vox
46
13.1%
Partido Popular + PSOE
74.6%
Partido Popular + Vox
51.7%
PSOE + Sumar
48.3%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by 40dB. The survey took place between 29.09.2023 and 02.10.2023 among 2000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 34.2%, PSOE 32.1%, Vox 11.7% and Sumar 11.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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