Spain: Poll by CIS from 05.01.2024

Spain: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PSOE
34.0
+2.2
PP
32.1
-1.1
Sumar
9.7
-2.1
Vox
8.3
-0.2
POD
2.7
+2.7
JxC
1.5
+0.2
ERC
1.4
-0.5
Bildu
0.9
-0.2
PNV
0.8
-0.1
BNG
0.7
-0.1
CC
0.2
±0.0
UPN
0.1
±0.0
Others
7.6
-0.8
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PSOE
+2.3
PP
-1.0
Sumar
-2.6
Vox
-4.1
POD
New
JxC
-0.1
ERC
-0.5
Bildu
-0.5
PNV
-0.3
BNG
+0.1
CC
-0.3
UPN
-0.1
CIS – 4016 respondents – 02.01.2024-05.01.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular lower

In 80% of election polls CIS rates Partido Popular lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 92% of election polls, CIS rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Sumar higher

In 33% of election polls, CIS rates Sumar higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox lower

In 68% of election polls CIS rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from CIS shows the following results: PSOE 34%, Partido Popular 32.1%, Sumar 9.7%, Vox 8.3%, Podemos 2.7%, Junts per Catalunya 1.5%, ERC 1.4%, EH Bildu 0.9%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 0.8%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.2% and UPN 0.1%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, PSOE might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.3 growth since the last election. Vox, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 52.0% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by CIS. For this purpose, 4016 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (02.01.2024 - 05.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
40
11.4%
PSOE
142
40.6%
PP
134
38.3%
Vox
34
9.7%
PSOE + Partido Popular
78.9%
PSOE + Sumar
52.0%
Partido Popular + Vox
48.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by CIS. The survey took place between 02.01.2024 and 05.01.2024 among 4016 eligible voters. After this election poll would get PSOE 34%, Partido Popular 32.1%, Sumar 9.7%, Vox 8.3%, Podemos 2.7%, Junts per Catalunya 1.5%, ERC 1.4%, EH Bildu 0.9%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 0.8%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.2% and UPN 0.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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