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Spain: Poll by GAD3 from 29.02.2024

Polling data

PP
37.9
+1.6
PSOE
28.4
-0.4
Vox
11.1
-0.5
Sumar
8.8
-2.9
POD
2.4
+2.4
ERC
2.0
+2.0
JxC
1.7
+1.7
Bildu
1.5
+1.5
PNV
1.1
+1.1
BNG
0.9
+0.9
CC
0.4
+0.4
UPN
0.2
+0.2
Sonst.
3.6
-8.0
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
+4.8
PSOE
-3.3
Vox
-1.3
Sumar
-3.5
POD
New
ERC
+0.1
JxC
+0.1
Bildu
+0.1
PNV
±0.0
BNG
+0.3
CC
-0.1
UPN
±0.0
GAD3 – 1005 respondents – 26.02.2024-29.02.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular higher

In 54% of election polls, GAD3 rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 36% of election polls, GAD3 rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Vox lower

In 34% of election polls GAD3 rates Vox lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Spain from GAD3 shows the following results: Partido Popular 37.9%, PSOE 28.4%, Vox 11.1%, Sumar 8.8%, Podemos 2.4%, ERC 2%, Junts per Catalunya 1.7%, EH Bildu 1.5%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.1%, Galego 0.9%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Partido Popular might gain the most in voter favorability with +4.8 growth since the last election. Sumar, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-3.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 43.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by GAD3. For this purpose, 1005 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (26.02.2024 - 29.02.2024).

Coalition possibilities

350
Sumar
35
PSOE
115
PP
155
Vox
45
Majority requires 176 seats
Partido Popular + PSOE
270
Partido Popular + Vox
200
PSOE + Sumar
150

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by GAD3. The survey took place between 26.02.2024 and 29.02.2024 among 1005 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 37.9%, PSOE 28.4%, Vox 11.1%, Sumar 8.8%, Podemos 2.4%, ERC 2%, Junts per Catalunya 1.7%, EH Bildu 1.5%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.1%, Galego 0.9%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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