Spain
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Spain: Poll by GESOP from 31.05.2024

Polling data

PP
32.0
±0.0
PSOE
31.5
±0.0
Vox
8.1
±0.0
Sumar
5.8
±0.0
AR
5.0
±0.0
POD
4.4
±0.0
SALF
3.7
±0.0
JxC
2.0
±0.0
CEUS
1.8
±0.0
Cs
0.9
±0.0
Sonst.
4.8
±0.0
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
-1.1
PSOE
-0.2
Vox
-4.3
Sumar
-6.5
AR
New
POD
New
SALF
New
JxC
+0.4
CEUS
New
Cs
New
GESOP – 1013 respondents – 27.05.2024-31.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular lower

In 61% of election polls GESOP rates Partido Popular lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE higher

In 30% of election polls, GESOP rates PSOE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Spain from GESOP shows the following results: Partido Popular 32%, PSOE 31.5%, Vox 8.1%, Sumar 5.8%, Ahora Repúblicas 5%, Podemos 4.4%, SALF 3.7%, Junts per Catalunya 2%, CEUS 1.8% and Ciudadanos 0.9%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Junts per Catalunya might gain the most in voter favorability with +0.4 growth since the last election. Sumar, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 39.2% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by GESOP. For this purpose, 1013 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (27.05.2024 - 31.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

96
SALF
3
Sumar
6
AR
6
POD
4
PSOE
32
CEUS
1
JxC
2
PP
33
Vox
9
Majority requires 49 seats
Partido Popular + PSOE
65
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos + SALF
45
Partido Popular + Vox + SALF
45

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in EU-Parliament was conducted by GESOP. The survey took place between 27.05.2024 and 31.05.2024 among 1013 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 32%, PSOE 31.5%, Vox 8.1%, Sumar 5.8%, Ahora Repúblicas 5%, Podemos 4.4%, SALF 3.7%, Junts per Catalunya 2%, CEUS 1.8% and Ciudadanos 0.9%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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