Spain: Poll by Hamalgama Métrica from 04.07.2024

Spain: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
PP
34.6
-4.1
PSOE
29.9
+2.1
Vox
11.3
+0.1
Sumar
5.9
-3.7
POD
3.8
+3.8
SALF
3.7
+3.7
JxC
1.9
+0.1
ERC
1.6
±0.0
Bildu
1.4
-0.2
PNV
1.3
-0.1
BNG
0.8
±0.0
CC
0.4
±0.0
UPN
0.2
±0.0
Others
3.2
-1.7
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
+1.5
PSOE
-1.8
Vox
-1.1
Sumar
-6.4
POD
New
SALF
New
JxC
+0.3
ERC
-0.3
Bildu
±0.0
PNV
+0.2
BNG
+0.2
CC
-0.1
UPN
±0.0
Hamalgama Métrica – 1000 respondents – 01.07.2024-04.07.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates Partido Popular higher

In 41% of election polls, Hamalgama Métrica rates Partido Popular higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates PSOE lower

In 45% of election polls Hamalgama Métrica rates PSOE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from Hamalgama Métrica shows the following results: Partido Popular 34.6%, PSOE 29.9%, Vox 11.3%, Sumar 5.9%, Podemos 3.8%, SALF 3.7%, Junts per Catalunya 1.9%, ERC 1.6%, EH Bildu 1.4%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Galego 0.8%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Partido Popular might gain the most in voter favorability with +1.5 growth since the last election. Sumar, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 40.3% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Hamalgama Métrica. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 3 days (01.07.2024 - 04.07.2024).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
SALF
14
4%
Sumar
23
6.6%
POD
15
4.3%
PSOE
118
33.7%
PP
136
38.9%
Vox
44
12.6%
Partido Popular + PSOE
72.6%
Partido Popular + Vox
51.4%
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos + SALF
48.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by Hamalgama Métrica. The survey took place between 01.07.2024 and 04.07.2024 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 34.6%, PSOE 29.9%, Vox 11.3%, Sumar 5.9%, Podemos 3.8%, SALF 3.7%, Junts per Catalunya 1.9%, ERC 1.6%, EH Bildu 1.4%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Galego 0.8%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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