Spain: Poll by Ipsos from 22.11.2024

Polling data

PP
33.8
-1.5
PSOE
28.4
+0.2
Vox
14.5
+1.9
Sumar
5.9
-7.0
POD
3.4
+3.4
ERC
2.0
+0.4
SALF
1.9
+1.9
JxC
1.6
-0.2
Bildu
1.4
+0.1
PNV
1.3
+0.1
BNG
0.7
+0.1
CC
0.4
+0.1
UPN
0.2
+0.2
Others
4.5
+0.3
Development since the last election on 23.07.2023
PP
+0.7
PSOE
-3.3
Vox
+2.1
Sumar
-6.4
POD
New
ERC
+0.1
SALF
New
JxC
±0.0
Bildu
±0.0
PNV
+0.2
BNG
+0.1
CC
-0.1
UPN
±0.0
Ipsos – 1178 respondents – 18.11.2024-22.11.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Spain is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Spain - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Spain from Ipsos shows the following results: Partido Popular 33.8%, PSOE 28.4%, Vox 14.5%, Sumar 5.9%, Podemos 3.4%, ERC 2%, SALF 1.9%, Junts per Catalunya 1.6%, EH Bildu 1.4%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%. If an election were held in Spain this Sunday, Vox might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.1 growth since the last election. Sumar, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Pedro Sánchez is currently governing with a Centre-left-wing coalition from PSOE and Sumar. With 39.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Ipsos. For this purpose, 1178 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (18.11.2024 - 22.11.2024).

Coalition possibilities

350
Majority requires 176 seats
Sumar
24
6.9%
POD
14
4%
PSOE
115
32.9%
PP
138
39.4%
Vox
59
16.9%
Partido Popular + PSOE
72.3%
Partido Popular + Vox
56.3%
PSOE + Sumar + Podemos
43.7%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Spain was conducted by Ipsos. The survey took place between 18.11.2024 and 22.11.2024 among 1178 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Partido Popular 33.8%, PSOE 28.4%, Vox 14.5%, Sumar 5.9%, Podemos 3.4%, ERC 2%, SALF 1.9%, Junts per Catalunya 1.6%, EH Bildu 1.4%, Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea/Partido Nacionalista Vasco 1.3%, Galego 0.7%, Coalición Canaria 0.4% and UPN 0.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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