Latest voting intention survey by Indikator Opinion for Sweden
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Sweden conducted by Indikator Opinion, the parties received the following results: Socialdemokraterna 32.6%, Sverigedemokraterna 20.6%, Moderaterna 18.3%, Vänsterpartiet 9%, Miljöpartiet 6%, Centerpartiet 5.1%, Kristdemokraterna 3.5% and Liberalerna 3.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 6811 people during the period 29.10.2024 - 29.10.2024. The survey was commissioned by Ekot.
6811 participants
29.10.2024 - 29.10.2024
Indikator Opinion
Ekot
Seats in parliament
349
Majority requires 175 seats
V
34
9.8%
S
124
35.6%
MP
23
6.6%
C
20
5.6%
M
70
20%
SD
78
22.5%
Socialdemokraterna + Moderaterna
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Miljöpartiet
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Centerpartiet
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Socialdemokraterna higher
In 33% of election polls, Indikator Opinion rates Socialdemokraterna higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Indikator Opinion pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.