Current election polls and polling data from Statistics

Latest voting intention survey by Statistics for Sweden

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Sweden conducted by Statistics, the parties received the following results: Socialdemokraterna 35%, Moderaterna 19.8%, Sverigedemokraterna 19.5%, Vänsterpartiet 8.2%, Miljöpartiet 5.2%, Centerpartiet 4.5%, Liberalerna 3.2% and Kristdemokraterna 2.8%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 9236 people during the period 30.05.2024 - 30.05.2024.
9236 participants
30.05.2024 - 30.05.2024
Statistics
S
35.0
±0.0
M
19.8
±0.0
SD
19.5
±0.0
V
8.2
±0.0
MP
5.2
±0.0
C
4.5
±0.0
L
3.2
±0.0
KD
2.8
±0.0
Others
1.8
±0.0

Seats in parliament

349
Majority requires 175 seats
V
31
8.9%
S
132
38%
MP
20
5.6%
C
17
4.9%
M
75
21.5%
SD
74
21.1%
Socialdemokraterna + Moderaterna
59.3%
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Miljöpartiet
52.4%
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Centerpartiet
51.6%

Rating of parties


Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower than before
Unchanged
Higher than before
C
Not enough data available
KD
Not enough data available
L
Not enough data available
M
Not enough data available
MP
Not enough data available
S
Not enough data available
SD
Not enough data available
V
Not enough data available

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Statistics pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results

What counts as accurate?

Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).

Calculation Methodology

We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.