Sweden: Poll by Novus from 21.01.2024

Sweden: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
S
35.4
-1.8
SD
21.1
+0.5
M
18.5
-0.1
V
7.8
-0.1
C
5.1
+1.2
MP
4.4
-0.2
KD
3.6
+0.4
L
3.1
+0.2
Others
1.0
-0.1
Development since the last election on 11.09.2022
S
+5.1
SD
+0.6
M
-0.6
V
+1.0
C
-1.6
MP
-0.7
KD
-1.7
L
-1.5
Novus – 2999 respondents – 22.12.2023-21.01.2024

Next election: 2026

The next parliamentary election in Sweden is expected to take place in 2026.

Election poll results

Sweden - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Sweden from Novus shows the following results: Socialdemokraterna 35.4%, Sverigedemokraterna 21.1%, Moderaterna 18.5%, Vänsterpartiet 7.8%, Centerpartiet 5.1%, Miljöpartiet 4.4%, Kristdemokraterna 3.6% and Liberalerna 3.1%. If an election were held in Sweden this Sunday, Socialdemokraterna might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.1 growth since the last election. Kristdemokraterna, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Ulf Kristersson is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna. With 20.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Novus. For this purpose, 2999 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 30 days (22.12.2023 - 21.01.2024).

Coalition possibilities

349
Majority requires 175 seats
V
30
8.6%
S
133
38.1%
MP
17
4.9%
C
19
5.4%
M
70
20.1%
SD
80
22.9%
Socialdemokraterna + Moderaterna
58.2%
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Centerpartiet
52.1%
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Miljöpartiet
51.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Sweden was conducted by Novus. The survey took place between 22.12.2023 and 21.01.2024 among 2999 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Socialdemokraterna 35.4%, Sverigedemokraterna 21.1%, Moderaterna 18.5%, Vänsterpartiet 7.8%, Centerpartiet 5.1%, Miljöpartiet 4.4%, Kristdemokraterna 3.6% and Liberalerna 3.1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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