Latest Opinion Poll for Switzerland (gfs.bern, October 12, 2002)

September 30, 2002 - October 12, 2002

2004 respondents

Next General election in Switzerland: 2027

The next General election in Switzerland is expected in 2027.

Who is leading in the latest poll from gfs.bern?

In the latest opinion poll for the Swiss election, conducted by gfs.bern on October 12, 2002, SVP/UDC leads with 25.2%. Trailing behind are SP/PS: 23.3%, FDP/PLR: 19.9%, CVP/PDC: 14%, G/LV: 4.5%, LPS PLS: 2.8%, EVP/PEV: 1.2%, EDU/UDF: 1%, LEGA: 1% and PDA/PST: 1%. Other parties secure 6.1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Switzerland
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the gfs.bern Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

gfs.bern achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.0

Election Accuracy

On average, gfs.bern's figures deviate by 1.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

0
Majority requires 1 seats

No Electoral Threshold

There is no electoral threshold for the Swiss Federal Election.

Switzerland's Electoral System

Switzerland's bicameral Federal Assembly features the 200-seat National Council and the 46-seat Council of States. The National Council employs proportional representation across cantons, while the Council of States largely uses a majority vote system. A distinctive element is 'panachage' and 'cumulation,' allowing voters to mix candidates from various party lists or cast multiple votes for specific individuals. This empowers citizens with substantial influence over the legislature's composition, moving beyond strict party affiliations.

Electoral Thresholds

Switzerland's federal elections notably lack an explicit percentage-based electoral threshold, unlike Germany's 5% hurdle. Instead, the de facto barrier for National Council entry emerges from the number of seats allocated per canton. This dynamic means smaller cantons with fewer mandates demand a substantially higher vote share for a seat, while larger cantons like Zurich can see parties secure representation with a smaller percentage.

Government Formation and Traditions

Swiss government formation defies the conventional coalition-opposition paradigm. The Federal Council, Switzerland's seven-member executive, is elected by the United Federal Assembly. For decades, its composition has adhered to the 'magic formula,' proportionally incorporating the nation's most powerful parties. This concordance system prioritizes achieving political solutions through broad consensus over transient majority coalitions.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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