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Latest Opinion Poll for Thuringia (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, August 29, 2024)

August 26, 2024 - August 29, 2024

1859 respondents

Next General Election in Thuringia: 2029

The next General Election in Thuringia is expected in 2029.

Thuringia's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 53.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen?

A new national poll in Thuringia from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen reveals AfD commanding 29% of the vote, with CDU: 23%, BSW: 18%, Die Linke: 13%, SPD: 6% and Grüne: 4% trailing. Other parties secure 7% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Thuringia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Insights, comparisons, and data on parties in Thuringia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen Projection?

85

PolitPro Score

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen achieved a PolitPro Score of 85 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Thuringian election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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  • Grüne
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen)

According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Thuringia parliament: AfD with 28 representatives, CDU with 23 representatives, BSW with 18 representatives, Die Linke with 13 representatives and SPD with 6 representatives.

Thuringia's Electoral System

Thuringia employs a personalized proportional representation system, utilizing both first and second votes. Its 88 seats are allocated through a combination of single-member constituencies and party-list proportional representation. The system faces intense scrutiny, particularly given the challenging parliamentary majorities of recent years and concerns over governmental stability.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent electoral threshold applies without exception. In a highly fragmented Landtag, this 5% mark is the critical barrier determining the feasibility of forming a stable majority. There is no provision for a basic mandate clause.

Government Formation and Traditions

Thuringia has a history of political firsts: It saw Germany's first Red-Red-Green (Left Party, SPD, Greens) coalition, led by Die Linke, followed by a challenging minority government. Currently, forming a government in the Erfurt Landtag stands as one of the most significant challenges in German state-level politics.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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