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Latest Opinion Poll for Thuringia (Institut Wahlkreisprognose, May 30, 2022)

May 23, 2022 - May 30, 2022

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Thuringia: 2029

The next General Election in Thuringia is expected in 2029.

Thuringia's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Institut Wahlkreisprognose projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 38.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut Wahlkreisprognose?

A new national poll in Thuringia from Institut Wahlkreisprognose reveals Die Linke commanding 24% of the vote, with AfD: 23%, CDU: 18%, SPD: 16%, Grüne: 7% and FDP: 4% trailing. Other parties secure 8% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Thuringia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut Wahlkreisprognose Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Institut Wahlkreisprognose at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Thuringian election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • Linke
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  • AfD
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  • CDU
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • AfD
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  • CDU
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • SPD
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  • Grüne
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Institut Wahlkreisprognose)

According to Institut Wahlkreisprognose data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Thuringia parliament: Die Linke with 24 representatives, AfD with 23 representatives, CDU with 18 representatives, SPD with 16 representatives and Grüne with 7 representatives.

Thuringia's Electoral System

Thuringia employs a personalized proportional representation system, utilizing both first and second votes. Its 88 seats are allocated through a combination of single-member constituencies and party-list proportional representation. The system faces intense scrutiny, particularly given the challenging parliamentary majorities of recent years and concerns over governmental stability.

Electoral Thresholds

The five-percent electoral threshold applies without exception. In a highly fragmented Landtag, this 5% mark is the critical barrier determining the feasibility of forming a stable majority. There is no provision for a basic mandate clause.

Government Formation and Traditions

Thuringia has a history of political firsts: It saw Germany's first Red-Red-Green (Left Party, SPD, Greens) coalition, led by Die Linke, followed by a challenging minority government. Currently, forming a government in the Erfurt Landtag stands as one of the most significant challenges in German state-level politics.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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