How the PolitPro poll of polls works

The PolitPro election trend is a tool that summarizes current polls on the political mood in Germany, Austria and the rest of Europe. It shows which parties would currently receive what percentage of the vote. This data is updated regularly and provides a quick overview of the political situation and possible changes in voter behaviour. This allows you to see how the popularity of the parties is developing.

The PolitPro poll of polls calculates a weighted average of current polls. For example, current polls are given more weight than older ones. The election trend takes into account the most recent poll result of an institute in the last 3 months.

The poll of polls calculates the weighted average of various institutes. It is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and can compensate for possible favours or disadvantages of individual parties. The trend therefore provides a quick overview of the political sentiment in the country.

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling organisations only list small parties from a value of 3%. PolitPro does not conduct its own surveys and therefore has no more precise information on small parties. In order to calculate reliable values, parties are only included in the poll of polls if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all election surveys.

Election polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes on the basis of various criteria so that it comes as close as possible to the possible result of a general election. However, the exact calculation methods used by the opinion research institutes are not publicly known.