Latest voting intention survey by ALF for Turkey
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Turkey conducted by ALF, the parties received the following results: AKP 32.8%, CHP 29.4%, MHP 9.6%, DEM 8.7%, ZP 5.6%, YRP 5.4% and İYİ 3.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 3160 people during the period 13.12.2024 - 13.12.2024.
3160 participants
03.12.2024 - 13.12.2024
ALF
AKP
32.8
-1.6
CHP
29.4
+10.6
MHP
9.6
-0.2
DEM
8.7
-1.8
ZP
5.6
-0.2
YRP
5.4
+0.7
İYİ
3.4
+1.2
Others
5.1
-8.7
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
600
Majority requires 301 seats
CHP
220
36.7%
DEM
64
10.7%
AKP
245
40.8%
MHP
71
11.8%
AKP + MHP
AKP + DEM
CHP + DEM
64
PolitPro Score
ALF achieves a score of 64/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.8
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in ALF pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.8 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
1.84
|
Parliamentary Election in Türkei 2023 | 7/28 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.