Current election polls and polling data from AR-G

Latest voting intention survey by AR-G for Turkey

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Turkey conducted by AR-G, the parties received the following results: AKP 33.3%, CHP 31.1%, İYİ 13.3%, DEM 9.3%, MHP 6.8%, TİP 2.5%, MP 1.7%, YRP 0.9% and ZP 0.7%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2231 people during the period 03.05.2023 - 03.05.2023.
2231 participants
27.04.2023 - 03.05.2023
AR-G
AKP
33.3
+1.9
CHP
31.1
+3.5
İYİ
13.3
+0.4
DEM
9.3
-2.8
MHP
6.8
+0.2
TİP
2.5
+2.5
MP
1.7
+0.4
YRP
0.9
+0.9
ZP
0.7
-0.4
Others
0.4
-6.6
This poll is more than 3 months old.

Seats in parliament

600
Majority requires 301 seats
CHP
215
35.8%
DEM
64
10.7%
AKP
230
38.3%
İYİ
91
15.2%
AKP + İYİ
53.5%
AKP + DEM
49.0%
CHP + DEM
46.5%

48

PolitPro Score

AR-G achieves a score of 48/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AKP
63
38
0
CHP
13
63
25
DEM
Not enough data available
MHP
13
88
0
TİP
Not enough data available
YRP
Not enough data available
ZP
20
80
0
İYİ
0
50
50

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

3.0

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in AR-G pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.0 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
3.04
Parliamentary Election in Türkei 2023 26/28

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.