Current election polls and polling data from AREA

Latest voting intention survey by AREA for Turkey

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Turkey conducted by AREA, the parties received the following results: CHP 30%, AKP 29.5%, DEM 10.1%, MHP 8.1%, İYİ 7%, ZP 5.4%, YRP 4.1% and Anahtar Parti 3.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2000 people during the period 27.11.2024 - 27.11.2024.
2000 participants
25.11.2024 - 27.11.2024
AREA
CHP
30.0
-0.1
AKP
29.5
-0.5
DEM
10.1
+0.6
MHP
8.1
+0.4
İYİ
7.0
-1.3
ZP
5.4
-1.2
YRP
4.1
-0.1
A
3.1
+3.1
Others
2.7
-0.9

Seats in parliament

600
Majority requires 301 seats
CHP
213
35.5%
DEM
72
12%
AKP
209
34.8%
İYİ
49
8.2%
MHP
57
9.5%
AKP + DEM + İYİ
55.0%
AKP + MHP + İYİ
52.5%

71

PolitPro Score

AREA achieves a score of 71/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AKP
15
55
30
CHP
20
68
13
DEM
0
86
14
MHP
8
70
23
YRP
10
90
0
ZP
0
92
8
İYİ
8
48
45

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.1

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in AREA pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
2.08
Parliamentary Election in Türkei 2023 13/28

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.